Is it too late to buy into S&P500?

Since our last buy recommendation on the generic market on January 12th, 2012, the S&P500 index rallied about +2.5%, reaching 1,316.33 as of Friday 27th. As a lot of our clients are asking whether they have missed this upward trend, we would like to share our current view on the market:

  • Statistical arbitrage still recommends “buy” – Our market model algorithm still indicates upward moves in the market direction. While volatility may rise (as measured by VIX), the model predicts bullish trends to continue for the coming 1-2 weeks.
  • Technically speaking, we may easily see 1,347 in the S&P500 in the next 8-9 trading days - While temporary setbacks are possible, we believe that they should be used to enter the market on the long side. 1,292 can be seen as an interim support (or stop for aggressive traders).
  • Fundamental developments are positive, too - While some investors in the market were hoping for a quantitative easing #3 (QE3) from the FED last week, Bernanke’s extension of exceptionally low interest rates until Q4 2014 can easily be seen as a QE2.5, thus positive news for all risky assets.

So, our short answer is no, it is not too late to buy into S&P500 as we reiterate our bullish view on the generic trend.

Stock Arbitrage Trader will help you take advantage of the bullish trend.

Bullish Reversal Trading Strategy

Sample Bullish Reversal Trading Strategy with Market Scan for the iPad.

Filter 1: Bollinger Band narrowest in the last 6 months


The purpose of Bollinger Bands is to provide a relative definition of high and low. By definition, prices are high at the upper band and low at the lower band. This definition can aid in rigorous pattern recognition and is useful in comparing price action to the action of indicators to arrive at systematic trading decisions.

Many securities go through periods of high volatility followed by periods of low volatility. Using Bollinger Bands, these periods can be easily identified with a visual assessment. Tight bands indicate low volatility and wide bands indicate high volatility.

See the yellow highlighted section on the screenshot below. [Click Screenshot to Enlarge]

A Couple of reminders
- The text color of the button will turn green to show that there is a selection made with that indicator (see button “BOLL”).
- Date selection is “0”, meaning we’re filtering the Last Trading Day.

Filter 2: MACD rises above the signal line

When the MACD falls below the signal line, it is a bearish signal, which indicates that it may be time to sell. Conversely, when the MACD rises above the signal line, the indicator gives a bullish signal, which suggests that the price of the asset is likely to experience upward momentum. Many traders wait for a confirmed cross above the signal line before entering into a position to avoid entering into a position too early.

[Click Screenshot to Enlarge]

Now, we have only 2 stocks to view for further analysis (data as of 12/02 – DHX: Dice Holding Inc., MEAS: Measurement Specialities Inc.). Please note that this number will change every day with the market condition. If you end up with a higher number of stocks, you can use a more rare filter criteria or add new filters to reduce the number of stocks to a manageable size.

[Click Screenshot to Enlarge]



Does this mean that these stocks will go up the next trading day? Of course not. This is just a scanning tool for you to filter the stock market so you can save time and find profitable investment opportunities.
One of the best reversal indicator is Parabolic SAR. It is a technical indicator that is used by many traders to determine the direction of an asset’s momentum and the point in time when this momentum has a higher-than-normal probability of switching directions. The Parabolic SAR is calculated almost independently for each trend in the price. When the price is in an uptrend, the SAR appears below the price and converges upwards towards it. Similarly, on a downtrend, the SAR appears above the price and converges downwards.
Here are the same charts with Parabolic SAR. [Click Image to Enlarge]


One of the most important aspects to keep in mind is that the positioning of the “dots” is used by traders to generate transaction signals depending on where the dot is placed relative to the asset’s price. A dot placed below the price is deemed to be a bullish signal, causing traders to expect the momentum to remain in the upward direction. Conversely, a dot placed above the prices is used to illustrate that the bears are in control and that the momentum is likely to remain downward. The first entry point on the buy side occurs when the most recent high price of an issue has been broken; it is at this time that the SAR is placed at the most recent low price. As the price of the stock rises, the dots will rise as well, first slowly and then picking up speed and accelerating with the trend. This accelerating system allows the investor to watch the trend develop and establish itself. The SAR starts to move a little faster as the trend develops and the dots soon catch up to the price action of the issue. The Parabolic SAR is an outstanding indicator for providing exit points. Long positions should be closed when the price sinks below the SAR line, short positions should be closed when the price rises above the SAR line. It is often the case that the indicator serves as a trailing stop line.

If you have any questions, please feel free to email us.

Market Direction Change

As our Stock Arbitrage Trader customers may have already noticed that on November 30th, our Arbitrage model has changed its short-term market direction forecast to “buy” after almost 4 weeks of “sell” recommendation. This means that generic market movement will be upwards and overall risk apetite will increase in the coming 5-7 days.

Market Direction Change 3

For the S&P500, our arbitrage model is forecasting a retest of the October high of 1292 (about +4% gain) in the coming week. The positive drivers from the market will be expectations from the EU leader meetings that are going to be held on 8th and 9th of December as well as positive economic data. Investors/traders who use tight stop-losses might want to watch 1220 as an interim support level.

“If you don’t already own” Stock Arbitrage Trader take advantage of this positive movement by downloading the app for your iPhone or iPad here!

Oversold Stocks with an Improving RSI



Market Scan for the iPad comes loaded with some great predefined scans. An examples is the “Oversold Stocks with an Improving RSI” which today brought back 15 matching stocks. The list below has some of the stocks in this predefined scans and the red X on the right denotes a stock in our Watchlist so that we can easily spot stocks that interest us.


[Click Screenshot to Enlarge]
Oversold Stocks with an Improving RSI

LGND – Ligand Pharmaceuticals Incorpor (NasdaqGM) Closed at $11.73 +0.32 2.80%
MERC – Mercer International Inc. (NasdaqG) Closed at $5.93 +0.59 11.05%
NGA – Niska Gas Storage Partners LLC (NYSE) Closed at $9.68 +0.38 4.09%
NMR – Nomura Holdings Inc ADR America (NYSE) Closed at $3.30 +0.21 6.80%
OME – Omega Protein Corporation Commo (NYSE) Closed at $8.43 +0.72 9.34%
ORI – Old Republic International Corp (NYSE) Closed at $8.22 +0.57 7.45%
QNST – QuinStreet, Inc. (NasdaqGS) Closed at $9.26 +0.33 3.70%
SMG – The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (NYSE) Closed at $44.09 +2.05 4.88%
VRTX – Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorpor (NasdaqGS) Closed at $28.99 +1.66 6.07%

If you think this scan, and other scans like it would be valuable to you in your day to day trading strategy be sure to check out Market Scan.

Oversold Stocks with an Improving RSI



Market Scan for the iPad comes loaded with some great predefined scans. An examples is the “Oversold Stocks with an Improving RSI” which today brought back 15 matching stocks. The list below has some of the stocks in this predefined scans and the red X on the right denotes a stock in our Watchlist so that we can easily spot stocks that interest us.


[Click Screenshot to Enlarge]
Oversold Stocks with an Improving RSI

LGND – Ligand Pharmaceuticals Incorpor (NasdaqGM) Closed at $11.73 +0.32 2.80%
MERC – Mercer International Inc. (NasdaqG) Closed at $5.93 +0.59 11.05%
NGA – Niska Gas Storage Partners LLC (NYSE) Closed at $9.68 +0.38 4.09%
NMR – Nomura Holdings Inc ADR America (NYSE) Closed at $3.30 +0.21 6.80%
OME – Omega Protein Corporation Commo (NYSE) Closed at $8.43 +0.72 9.34%
ORI – Old Republic International Corp (NYSE) Closed at $8.22 +0.57 7.45%
QNST – QuinStreet, Inc. (NasdaqGS) Closed at $9.26 +0.33 3.70%
SMG – The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (NYSE) Closed at $44.09 +2.05 4.88%
VRTX – Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorpor (NasdaqGS) Closed at $28.99 +1.66 6.07%

If you think this scan, and other scans like it would be valuable to you in your day to day trading strategy be sure to check out Market Scan.

Completely Re-Designed: Market Scan



It’s been a long time coming but Market Scan for the iPad has been updated, and it’s not a minor update. We’ve completely redesigned this app. It’s now more powerful yet leaner and meaner than ever. The scans are now presented in a more visual state, allowing you to see how many stocks each scan holds at first glance. The watchlist has been updated and syncs amongst all of your missingSTEP apps. The charts have been improved, creating a better looking environment and a faster experience. Then there’s our personal favorite, the alerts section which notifies you which stocks from your Watchlist have popped in a specific scan that you happen to be keeping track of. This tracks both the pre-defined scans and the custom scans that you create. Powerful stuff.


A Look at the opening page. Easy to read titles, numbers of stock in each screen [Click Screenshot to Enlarge]
Market Scan Update 2

 
A look at the stocks within a scan [Click Screenshot to Enlarge]
Market Scan Update 1

 
Customizable charts that are fast and responsive [Click Screenshot to Enlarge]
Market Scan Update 3

 
Your Watchlist help you scan the stocks that you’re interested in [Click Screenshot to Enlarge]
Market Scan Update 4

 
The Alerts lets you track which of your Watchlist stocks fall under each scan you track [Click Screenshot to Enlarge]
Market Scan Update 5

If you haven’t already downloaded Market Scan you should definitely check it out now. If you have already downloaded Market Scan don’t forget to update, the new version has so many “Can’t Miss” type features.


app-store

Bullish & Bearish Engulfing Candlestick Patterns



Here are a couple of examples of bullisha nd bearish candlestick patterns that we found via Daily Stocks.


COCO Corinthian Colleges, Inc. [Click Chart to Enlarge]
COCO nq8


TSTC Telestone Technologies Corp. [Click Chart to Enlarge]
TSTC nq8


If you don’t already use Japanese Candlestick Patterns in your technical analysis we highly recommend it. It can be a powerful tool, and at the very minimum a good way to confirm trends or reversal signs.

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